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2025 Week 13 FINAL · Conference game

Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee

Saturday, November 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM CST

Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

17
Sam Houston
Final
31
Middle Tennessee
Team 1234 T
Sam Houston 10007 17
Middle Tennessee 010714 31

GIE pre-game call: Middle Tennessee at 86%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Sam Houston
Conference USA
Record
2-10
Rating
-27.8
National rank
135
Proj. wins
0.3
Playoff prob.
0%
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
Record
3-9
Rating
-16.0
National rank
127
Proj. wins
1.0
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Sam Houston
14%
Middle Tennessee
86%
Middle Tennessee 90% CI: 80% – 90% Δ rating 11.8

Middle Tennessee is the model's favorite at 86%. Sam Houston has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Middle Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM CST
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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