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2025 Week 9 FINAL · Conference game

Missouri State at New Mexico State

Wednesday, October 22, 2025 · 8:00 PM CDT

Aggie Memorial Stadium

24
Missouri State
Final
17
New Mexico State
Team 1234OT T
Missouri State 701007 24
New Mexico State 070100 17

GIE pre-game call: Missouri State at 57%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Missouri State
Conference USA
Record
7-6
Rating
-10.7
National rank
108
Proj. wins
0.2
Playoff prob.
0%
New Mexico State
Conference USA
Record
4-8
Rating
-15.5
National rank
123
Proj. wins
0.6
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Missouri State
57%
New Mexico State
43%
New Mexico State 90% CI: 34% – 52% Δ rating 4.8

Missouri State is the model's favorite at 57%. New Mexico State has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for New Mexico State — venue-specific learned value (n=41 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Wednesday, October 22, 2025 · 8:00 PM CDT
Venue
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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