4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

2025 Week 11 FINAL · Conference game

Houston at UCF

Friday, November 7, 2025 · 7:00 PM CST

FBC Mortgage Stadium

30
Houston
Final
27
UCF
Team 1234 T
Houston 01776 30
UCF 32130 27

GIE pre-game call: Houston at 65%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Houston
Big 12
Record
10-3
Rating
7.4
National rank
40
Proj. wins
7.4
Playoff prob.
1%
UCF
Big 12
Record
5-7
Rating
-1.2
National rank
76
Proj. wins
5.6
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Houston
65%
UCF
35%
UCF 90% CI: 27% – 44% Δ rating 8.6

Houston is the model's favorite at 65%. UCF has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.6 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, November 7, 2025 · 7:00 PM CST
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

← Home