2025 Week 14 FINAL · Conference game
SMU at California
Saturday, November 29, 2025 · 7:00 PM CST
California Memorial Stadium
35
SMU
Final
38
California
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 35 |
| California | 3 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
GIE pre-game call: SMU at 81%. Miss.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 9-4
- Rating
- 13.4
- National rank
- 23
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 12%
California
ACC
- Record
- 7-6
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
SMU
81%
California
19%
California 90% CI: 14% – 26% Δ rating 16.6
SMU is the model's favorite at 81%. California has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.1 rating points baked in for California — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 29, 2025 · 7:00 PM CST
- Venue
- California Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No