2025 Week 12 FINAL · Conference game
Virginia at Duke
Saturday, November 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM CST
Wallace Wade Stadium
34
Virginia
Final
17
Duke
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 7 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 34 |
| Duke | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
GIE pre-game call: Virginia at 62%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 11-3
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 31
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
Duke
ACC
- Record
- 9-5
- Rating
- 6.6
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Virginia
62%
Duke
38%
Duke 90% CI: 30% – 48% Δ rating 4.5
Virginia is the model's favorite at 62%. Duke has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.7 rating points baked in for Duke — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM CST
- Venue
- Wallace Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No