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2025 Week 10 FINAL · Conference game

Virginia at California

Saturday, November 1, 2025 · 2:45 PM CDT

California Memorial Stadium

31
Virginia
Final
21
California
Team 1234 T
Virginia 10777 31
California 0777 21

GIE pre-game call: Virginia at 76%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Virginia
ACC
Record
11-3
Rating
11.1
National rank
31
Proj. wins
8.5
Playoff prob.
9%
California
ACC
Record
7-6
Rating
-3.2
National rank
80
Proj. wins
5.3
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Virginia
76%
California
24%
California 90% CI: 18% – 32% Δ rating 14.3

Virginia is the model's favorite at 76%. California has a 24% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.1 rating points baked in for California — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 1, 2025 · 2:45 PM CDT
Venue
California Memorial Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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