2025 Week 10 FINAL · Conference game
Virginia at California
Saturday, November 1, 2025 · 2:45 PM CDT
California Memorial Stadium
31
Virginia
Final
21
California
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| California | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
GIE pre-game call: Virginia at 76%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 11-3
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 31
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
California
ACC
- Record
- 7-6
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Virginia
76%
California
24%
California 90% CI: 18% – 32% Δ rating 14.3
Virginia is the model's favorite at 76%. California has a 24% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.1 rating points baked in for California — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 1, 2025 · 2:45 PM CDT
- Venue
- California Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No