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2025 Week 9 FINAL · Conference game

Virginia at North Carolina

Saturday, October 25, 2025 · 11:00 AM CDT

Kenan Stadium

17
Virginia
Final
16
North Carolina
Team 1234OT T
Virginia 37007 17
North Carolina 010006 16

GIE pre-game call: Virginia at 90%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Virginia
ACC
Record
11-3
Rating
11.1
National rank
31
Proj. wins
8.5
Playoff prob.
9%
North Carolina
ACC
Record
4-8
Rating
-6.6
National rank
91
Proj. wins
3.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Virginia
90%
North Carolina
10%
North Carolina 90% CI: 7% – 14% Δ rating 17.7

Virginia is the model's favorite at 90%. North Carolina has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.1 rating points baked in for North Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 25, 2025 · 11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Kenan Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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