2025 Week 8 FINAL · Conference game
North Carolina at California
Friday, October 17, 2025 · 9:30 PM CDT
California Memorial Stadium
18
North Carolina
Final
21
California
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| California | 14 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
GIE pre-game call: California at 74%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
North Carolina
ACC
- Record
- 4-8
- Rating
- -6.6
- National rank
- 91
- Proj. wins
- 3.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
California
ACC
- Record
- 7-6
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Carolina
26%
California
74%
California 90% CI: 67% – 81% Δ rating 3.4
California is the model's favorite at 74%. North Carolina has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.1 rating points baked in for California — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 17, 2025 · 9:30 PM CDT
- Venue
- California Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No