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2025 Week 12 FINAL · Conference game

Penn State at Michigan State

Saturday, November 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM CST

Spartan Stadium

28
Penn State
Final
10
Michigan State
Team 1234 T
Penn State 77014 28
Michigan State 7300 10

GIE pre-game call: Penn State at 93%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Penn State
Big Ten
Record
7-6
Rating
18.1
National rank
15
Proj. wins
9.0
Playoff prob.
35%
Michigan State
Big Ten
Record
4-8
Rating
-3.4
National rank
82
Proj. wins
4.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Penn State
93%
Michigan State
7%
Michigan State 90% CI: 5% – 9% Δ rating 21.5

Penn State is the model's favorite at 93%. Michigan State has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM CST
Venue
Spartan Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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