Northwestern: 2026 Week 12 recap

Northwestern's rating dropped 1.3 points to 12.4 (No. 33) following a 24–10 home loss to Iowa in Week 10, a result that confirmed what the model had been signaling: the Wildcats' offense remains unreliable in critical moments. A red-zone touchdown rate of 8% tells much of that story—they're leaving points on the field consistently. At 6–3, GIE projects 7.4 expected wins for the season, and the playoff door has firmly closed. Northwestern faces Ohio State on the road this week, a matchup that offers little opportunity to reverse course but will test whether the Wildcats can compete with a top-tier opponent. Third-down conversion at 44% suggests execution issues that won't disappear against elite defenses.