North Dakota State: 2026 Week 3 recap

North Dakota State remains undefeated at 2–0 after dismantling Jacksonville State 33–7 in Week 1, but GIE isn't convinced yet—the Bison sit at rank 75 with a rating of −1.8, unchanged from last week. That red-zone TD rate of 18% is the real concern: the offense is leaving points on the field in critical moments, a problem that compounds when facing tougher competition. The model projects 8.4 expected wins and gives them a 32% shot at the conference title, though a playoff berth remains off the board. This week's road trip to Air Force will tell whether North Dakota State can sustain the unbeaten start against a Mountain West peer.