Mississippi State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Mississippi State's rating dropped 2.2 points this week to 3.8, landing them at 56th nationally—a sharp fall reflecting last week's 25-23 home loss to Vanderbilt. At 4-5, the Bulldogs are essentially out of playoff contention with zero percent inclusion odds. The red-zone TD rate of 13 percent reveals a critical weakness: they're not converting opportunities into points when it matters most. Third-down conversion sits at 39 percent, which compounds the problem—they're stalling drives before they even reach scoring position. Mississippi State hosts Auburn on Saturday with their bowl eligibility in real jeopardy. GIE projects 4.9 expected wins for the season, suggesting they'll need a strong finish to avoid falling short of six wins.