Iowa State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Iowa State sits at 4–5 after a 42–31 road loss to Baylor in Week 10, and GIE's assessment has darkened: the model dropped the Cyclones 1.1 points this week to a rating of −2.3, now ranking them 81st nationally. The offensive struggles are real—a 15% red-zone touchdown rate and 37% third-down conversion rate are killing drives when they matter most. Even late-game leverage performance (4.98) can't overcome those efficiency gaps. With Cincinnati coming to Ames in Week 11, Iowa State needs a win to stay mathematically viable, but the model gives them zero playoff probability and a projected win total of 5.6 for the season. The margin is razor-thin.