Air Force: 2026 Week 3 recap

Air Force sits at 1–0 after a dominant 34–0 shutout of Duquesne in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged, holding steady at −3.2 and ranking them 84th nationally. The blowout win masks some offensive inefficiency: a red-zone TD rate of just 15% suggests the Falcons left points on the field despite controlling the game. Third-down conversion sits at 45%, which will need improvement against stiffer competition. They face North Dakota State at home this week—a significant step up in opponent quality. GIE projects 7.2 expected wins for the season, with a 12% chance to win the Mountain West. Early dominance against a weak schedule is encouraging, but the Falcons need to prove they can execute in tighter moments to climb out of the 80s.