4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

2026 Week 8 · Conference game

East Carolina at Memphis

Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

East Carolina
American Athletic
Record
1-2
Rating
-5.6
National rank
88
Proj. wins
5.3
Playoff prob.
0%
Memphis
American Athletic
Record
3-1
Rating
3.7
National rank
62
Proj. wins
7.8
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

East Carolina
21%
Memphis
79%
Memphis 90% CI: 73% – 85% Δ rating 9.3

Memphis is the model's favorite at 79%. East Carolina has a 21% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Memphis — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

East Carolina offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Memphis offense
35 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Venue
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
Share

← Home