2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Memphis at Charlotte
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-1
- Rating
- 3.7
- National rank
- 62
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Charlotte
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -24.1
- National rank
- 135
- Proj. wins
- 3.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Memphis
97%
Charlotte
3%
Charlotte 90% CI: 2% – 5% Δ rating 27.8
Memphis is the model's favorite at 97%. Charlotte has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.5 rating points baked in for Charlotte — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Charlotte offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
79°F
Precipitation
31%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Jerry Richardson Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No