Conference game
Cincinnati at Iowa State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Cincinnati 45% Underdog
Iowa State 55% Favorite
Iowa State is the model's favorite at 55%. Cincinnati has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.9 rating points baked in for Iowa State — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Cincinnati offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Iowa State offense
Higher fit 36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup