2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Sacramento State at Central Michigan
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -20.9
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Central Michigan
Mid-American
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -14.9
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sacramento State
25%
Central Michigan
75%
Central Michigan 90% CI: 67% – 81% Δ rating 6.0
Central Michigan is the model's favorite at 75%. Sacramento State has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.6 rating points baked in for Central Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sacramento State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Central Michigan offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Kelly/Shorts Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No