Conference game
Illinois at Northwestern
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Illinois 29% Underdog
Northwestern 71% Favorite
Northwestern is the model's favorite at 71%. Illinois has a 29% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Northwestern — venue-specific learned value (n=4 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Illinois offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Northwestern offense
33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup