Conference game
Oregon at Michigan State
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 8:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Oregon 85% Favorite
Michigan State 15% Underdog
Oregon is the model's favorite at 85%. Michigan State has a 15% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.2 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific night-game value (n=58 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Oregon offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense
29 / 100 Style-neutral matchup