2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Oregon at Michigan State
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Spartan Stadium
Oregon
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 24.4
- National rank
- 5
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Oregon
94%
Michigan State
6%
Michigan State 90% CI: 4% – 9% Δ rating 22.1
Oregon is the model's favorite at 94%. Michigan State has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Oregon offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense
29 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Spartan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No