2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Iowa at Illinois
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Iowa
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 17.3
- National rank
- 18
- Proj. wins
- 8.1
- Playoff prob.
- 23%
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 33
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Iowa
69%
Illinois
31%
Illinois 90% CI: 23% – 39% Δ rating 6.2
Iowa is the model's favorite at 69%. Illinois has a 31% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.4 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa offense
31 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Illinois offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No