Conference game
Iowa at Illinois
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Iowa 74% Favorite
Illinois 26% Underdog
Iowa is the model's favorite at 74%. Illinois has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.2 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa offense
31 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Illinois offense
Higher fit 32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup