Conference game
Michigan at Oregon
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 3:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Michigan 22% Underdog
Oregon 78% Favorite
Oregon is the model's favorite at 78%. Michigan has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.1 rating points baked in for Oregon — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan offense
27 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Oregon offense
Higher fit 32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup