2026 Week 10 · Conference game
Michigan State at Michigan
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Michigan Stadium
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Michigan
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 15.1
- National rank
- 21
- Proj. wins
- 7.9
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Michigan State
14%
Michigan
86%
Michigan 90% CI: 81% – 90% Δ rating 12.8
Michigan is the model's favorite at 86%. Michigan State has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=67 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Michigan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No