2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Penn State at Michigan
Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Michigan Stadium
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 18.1
- National rank
- 15
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 35%
Michigan
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.4
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Penn State
62%
Michigan
38%
Michigan 90% CI: 30% – 47% Δ rating 5.7
Penn State is the model's favorite at 62%. Michigan has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=67 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Penn State offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Michigan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No