2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Illinois at Michigan State
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Spartan Stadium
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 33
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Illinois
74%
Michigan State
26%
Michigan State 90% CI: 19% – 34% Δ rating 8.8
Illinois is the model's favorite at 74%. Michigan State has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Illinois offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
35°F
Precipitation
1%
Wind
1 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Spartan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No