2026 Week 5 · Conference game · Neutral site
Penn State at Northwestern
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Ryan Field
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 18.1
- National rank
- 15
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 35%
Northwestern
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 5.8
- National rank
- 51
- Proj. wins
- 5.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Penn State
82%
Northwestern
18%
Northwestern 90% CI: 13% – 24% Δ rating 12.3
Penn State is the model's favorite at 82%. Northwestern has a 18% path. No home-field adjustment applied (neutral site).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Penn State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Northwestern offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast for neutral-site venues will arrive once the venues table ships (#53).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Ryan Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- Yes