2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Penn State at Northwestern
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Ryan Field
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 18.1
- National rank
- 15
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 33%
Northwestern
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 5.8
- National rank
- 51
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Penn State
77%
Northwestern
23%
Northwestern 90% CI: 17% – 30% Δ rating 12.3
Penn State is the model's favorite at 77%. Northwestern has a 23% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Northwestern.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Penn State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Northwestern offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Ryan Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No