2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Penn State at Northwestern
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Ryan Field
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 19.1
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 50%
Northwestern
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-0
- Rating
- 7.7
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Penn State
75%
Northwestern
25%
Northwestern 90% CI: 18% – 32% Δ rating 11.4
Penn State is the model's favorite at 75%. Northwestern has a 25% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Northwestern.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Penn State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Northwestern offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
62°F
Precipitation
29%
Wind
11 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Ryan Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No