2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Michigan at Minnesota
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Huntington Bank Stadium
Michigan
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.4
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
Minnesota
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.5
- National rank
- 70
- Proj. wins
- 5.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Michigan
78%
Minnesota
22%
Minnesota 90% CI: 16% – 29% Δ rating 10.9
Michigan is the model's favorite at 78%. Minnesota has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Minnesota — venue-specific learned value (n=61 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Minnesota offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Huntington Bank Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No