2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Michigan at Minnesota
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Huntington Bank Stadium
Michigan
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 15.1
- National rank
- 21
- Proj. wins
- 7.9
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
Minnesota
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.9
- National rank
- 51
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Michigan
74%
Minnesota
26%
Minnesota 90% CI: 20% – 34% Δ rating 9.2
Michigan is the model's favorite at 74%. Minnesota has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Minnesota — venue-specific learned value (n=61 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Minnesota offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Drizzle
Temperature
57°F
Precipitation
21%
Wind
14 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Huntington Bank Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No