2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Iowa at Michigan
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Michigan Stadium
Iowa
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 19.7
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 8.6
- Playoff prob.
- 47%
Michigan
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.4
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Iowa
66%
Michigan
34%
Michigan 90% CI: 26% – 42% Δ rating 7.3
Iowa is the model's favorite at 66%. Michigan has a 34% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=67 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Michigan offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Michigan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No