2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Iowa at Michigan
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Michigan Stadium
Iowa
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 17.3
- National rank
- 18
- Proj. wins
- 8.1
- Playoff prob.
- 23%
Michigan
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 15.1
- National rank
- 21
- Proj. wins
- 7.9
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Iowa
51%
Michigan
49%
Michigan 90% CI: 40% – 58% Δ rating 2.2
Iowa is the model's favorite at 51%. Michigan has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=67 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Michigan offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
66°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Michigan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No