2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Florida State at Louisville
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.2
- National rank
- 41
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Louisville
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.4
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida State
23%
Louisville
77%
Louisville 90% CI: 69% – 83% Δ rating 5.2
Louisville is the model's favorite at 77%. Florida State has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Louisville — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida State offense
27 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Louisville offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No