2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Florida State at Louisville
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Louisville
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 13.3
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida State
21%
Louisville
79%
Louisville 90% CI: 72% – 85% Δ rating 7.8
Louisville is the model's favorite at 79%. Florida State has a 21% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Louisville — venue-specific night-game value (n=58 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida State offense
27 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Louisville offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
52°F
Precipitation
3%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No