2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Louisville at NC State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Carter-Finley Stadium
Louisville
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 13.3
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
NC State
ACC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- 5.0
- National rank
- 57
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Louisville
64%
NC State
36%
NC State 90% CI: 28% – 45% Δ rating 8.3
Louisville is the model's favorite at 64%. NC State has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for NC State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Louisville offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
NC State offense
29 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
84°F
Precipitation
29%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No