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2026 Week 2

Iowa State at Iowa

Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Kinnick Stadium

Iowa State
Big 12
Record
0-0
Rating
9.9
National rank
33
Proj. wins
7.2
Playoff prob.
1%
Iowa
Big Ten
Record
0-0
Rating
19.7
National rank
12
Proj. wins
8.6
Playoff prob.
47%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Iowa State
17%
Iowa
83%
Iowa 90% CI: 77% – 87% Δ rating 9.8

Iowa is the model's favorite at 83%. Iowa State has a 17% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Iowa — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Iowa State offense
32 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Iowa offense
33 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Kinnick Stadium
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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