2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Florida at Missouri
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Memorial Stadium
Florida
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 17.8
- National rank
- 15
- Proj. wins
- 8.3
- Playoff prob.
- 46%
Missouri
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 15.0
- National rank
- 22
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 52%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida
49%
Missouri
51%
Missouri 90% CI: 41% – 60% Δ rating 2.8
Missouri is the model's favorite at 51%. Florida has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Missouri — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Missouri offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
77°F
Precipitation
13%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No