2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Florida at Missouri
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Memorial Stadium
Florida
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.5
- National rank
- 63
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Missouri
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 14.4
- National rank
- 21
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 7%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida
15%
Missouri
85%
Missouri 90% CI: 80% – 89% Δ rating 10.9
Missouri is the model's favorite at 85%. Florida has a 15% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Missouri — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Missouri offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No