2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Missouri at Mississippi State
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Davis Wade Stadium
Missouri
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 14.4
- National rank
- 21
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 7%
Mississippi State
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 4.1
- National rank
- 58
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Missouri
72%
Mississippi State
28%
Mississippi State 90% CI: 21% – 36% Δ rating 10.3
Missouri is the model's favorite at 72%. Mississippi State has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Mississippi State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Mississippi State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No