2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Missouri at Mississippi State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:45 PM UTC
Davis Wade Stadium
Missouri
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 15.0
- National rank
- 22
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 52%
Mississippi State
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 51%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Missouri
44%
Mississippi State
56%
Mississippi State 90% CI: 46% – 65% Δ rating 3.0
Mississippi State is the model's favorite at 56%. Missouri has a 44% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for Mississippi State — venue-specific night-game value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Mississippi State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:45 PM UTC
- Venue
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No